Evaluation of Software Modernization Estimation Methods Using NIMSAD Meta Framework

This report charts and compares some of the most promising methods and approaches available for 1) estimating the profitability of software modernizations and for 2) supporting the actual modernizations. Thus, we’re concerned both with providing arguments for informed decisions regarding software modernizations, and charting effective technical possibilities to support the actual modernizations. In this report the focus is on the first objective. Profitability is affected by benefits, risks, and costs. There exists multiple approaches for evaluating these issues, including strategy selection of legacy system evolution and modernizations. We shall provide a comparison of 12 well-known approaches. The sample includes 6 general approaches suitable for strategic-level decision support, 2 risk evaluation based approaches, and 4 approaches for cost estimation. The evaluation is organized based on NIMSAD meta framework for evaluating methodologies. Reliable estimation of (long-term strategic-level) benefits especially appears to be difficult. Risk-based evaluation approaches seem practical bases for process improvements. Cost estimation has its peculiarities on software maintenance field, which should be taken into account. Empirical validation of most of these models, unfortunately, is either relatively weak or nonexistent. We feel that an appropriate process development strategy includes improvement of the existing expert decision making (regarding software modernizations) iteratively in cooperation with software industry including the explication of risks and possibilities involved with modernizations. We will also briefly survey 10 main branches of approaches for actual modernizations.